It was another exceptionally strong week for the watchlist as multiple setups woke up and printed decisive momentum breakouts. I’m excited to share those detailed setups with you below.
First, I want to extend a sincere thank you to everyone who has taken the time to subscribe and support the publication. My primary goal each week is to provide actionable ideas you might not otherwise see on your radar—bridging the gap between active technical strength and asymmetric value. In these reports, we focus on two core setups: high-momentum names displaying clean technical breakouts, alongside unloved, deeply discounted assets carving out cycle bottoms.
Thoughts from the week
Broken Middle Class
It’s getting harder by the day just to get ahead, and the numbers back up the frustration. This chart shows the direct result of persistent inflation, endless money printing, and bad government policy over the last few decades.
In 1990, housing, college, and healthcare took 36% of a median income. Today, those same three expenses eat up 73%—and it takes two working parents just to hit the same standard of living.
All these issues are coming to a head at once, and it’ll be real interesting to see how the consequences play out. But as paper money buys less and less, capital is naturally going to look for shelter in physical hard assets, hence the importance of having real assets.
US Debt Interest Hits $1.38 Trillion
A lot of this stuff always feels like doom and gloom, but unfortunately, this is just the reality of the math we’re dealing with today.
Looking at the numbers in that chart, the situation isn’t stabilizing—it’s actively getting worse. The estimated annualized interest expense on US federal debt has now surged to a record $1.38 trillion, representing 4.2% of US GDP. To put that in perspective, interest costs have exploded by nearly 200% over the last five years alone, rising at an average rate of 24% per year.
This is a compounding problem that is going to come to a head eventually. The core question is when and how:
Are politicians going to make working people pay the price through higher taxes and inflation?
Or are they actually going to address reckless spending and cut unnecessary government budgets?
History suggests governments rarely choose fiscal discipline voluntarily. When interest payments alone swallow this much revenue, something has to give. As investors, watching these fiscal dynamics play out is why staying anchored in hard assets and real commodities remains critical.
Largo and the Vanadium Bottom
Vanadium is a critical industrial commodity that has been stuck in the gutter for years, but the long-term setup is getting too compelling to ignore.
I recently took a position in Largo. As the world’s premier high-grade primary vanadium producer, Largo offers pure, high-torque exposure to a commodity that sits at a deep cyclical floor. The stock has suffered an brutal multi-year decline—trading around $1.00 CAD today after peaking near $22.00 CAD during the last major cycle.
What makes Largo particularly interesting right now is its growing strategic importance to Western supply chains:
U.S. Defense Department Backing: The U.S. Defense Logistics Agency recently awarded Largo a 5-year supply contract worth up to US$125 million—including an immediate US$60.1 million firm order to supply high-purity vanadium for the U.S. National Defense Stockpile.
China’s Energy Storage Push: China continues to rapidly connect Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries (VRFB) to its grid, setting up long-term structural demand alongside its 15th Five-Year Plan.
Geopolitical Realities: With China and Russia controlling over 80% of global supply, Western nations are realizing they cannot rely on foreign adversaries for critical defense and aerospace metals.
Weekly Watchlist Stocks - Momentum Breakouts
First Phosphate - Weekly Chart - Market Cap $448 Million CAD
What a couple weeks for the stock, it broke out to clear skies ahead, with no resistance ahead. The stock has been outperforming the $SPX for well over a year and a half which is exceptional in this market. Lots of momentum here.
First Phosphate has been on an absolute tear lately. They’re developing a massive, high-purity igneous phosphate project in Quebec specifically targeted at the North American LFP battery supply chain. Unlike standard fertilizer-grade phosphate, their resource carries ultra-low impurities, making it ideal for downstream battery tech, energy storage, and defense.
A few major catalysts have poured gas on this fire:
Nasdaq Listing: They just officially uplisted to the Nasdaq opening the floodgates to U.S. institutional capital.
Government Support: They’ve secured over $20 million in non-repayable Canadian government grants for processing studies and infrastructure, alongside “Fastrack” status in Quebec.
Solid Project Economics: A PEA on the asset outlines a 23-year mine life with a post-tax NPV of $1.59 Billion CAD and a ~33% IRR against a manageable $675M buildout cost.
This is an advanced pre-production developer working through feasibility studies and permitting. They still need to secure their full ~$675M mine construction package around 2027.
At a valuation trading around 0.27x post-tax NPV, this has room to run while important milestones and financing are checked off.